Use Case: How the Pacific Ocean influences Argentine soybean
Team Beyond Weather

Published on: 2025/01/16

5 min

The weather patterns in Argentina are heavily influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which alternates between two opposing phases: El Niño (warm phase) and La Niña (cold phase), and these global climate drivers play a pivotal role in shaping the country’s agricultural outcomes, particularly for soybeans, which are Argentina’s most significant crop export.

As of recent seasons, ENSO's impact on Argentinian soybean production has been a critical focus for farmers, traders, and policymakers alike, as these weather patterns significantly influence the crop's development and the broader agricultural landscape.

La Niña: A Struggle Against Dryness

La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, disrupting atmospheric circulation, and for Argentina, this often translates into below-average rainfall during the soybean growing season, particularly in key agricultural provinces like Córdoba, Santa Fe, and Buenos Aires.

Key Impacts of La Niña on Soybean

  1. Drought Stress: La Niña tends to exacerbate dry conditions, reducing soil moisture levels at critical growth stages. This drought stress can lead to significant yield reductions
  2. Heatwaves: The lack of rainfall is often coupled with above-average temperatures, further stressing crops. Heatwaves during flowering and grain-filling stages can severely impair soybean productivity.
  3. Delayed Planting: The reduced rainfall can delay planting as farmers wait for sufficient soil moisture, compressing the growing season and increasing risks of frost damage later in the cycle.

But it's not just that. The time evolution of ENSO matters as well: Beyond Weather scientists showed that the biggest harvest impacts occur when La Nina persists for several years in a row (source).

El Niño: A Double-Edged Sword

El Niño, on the other hand, is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, which tends to bring wetter-than-usual conditions to much of Argentina.

Key Impacts of El Niño on Soybean

  1. Improved Rainfall: In many cases, El Niño brings much-needed rains that replenish soil moisture and support robust soybean growth. This is particularly beneficial during early vegetative stages and pod filling, leading to higher yields
  2. Flood Risks: However, excessive rainfall during El Niño years can lead to waterlogging and flooding, especially in low-lying regions. Soybean roots are highly susceptible to oxygen depletion in saturated soils, which can stunt growth or cause crop losses
  3. Pest and Disease Pressure: The wetter conditions also create an environment conducive to the spread of fungal diseases such as soybean rust and increased pest activity

2025 Outlook: What to Expect?

The influence of La Niña and El Niño on Argentinian soybean production is strong but the interactions are more complex than outlined above. This is where AI comes in. With our AI-based, long-range weather and crop forecasts, the agricultural sector can better navigate these challenges and harness opportunities presented by these global climatic phenomena.

Book a demo today and discover the power of long-range forecasting for your business.

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